The edge may be real. The offer math is not.

You have built a plausible betting model, not yet a sellable subscription. At 16 bets a month and a 4.8% return, a customer staking £20 expects £15.36 before paying your £19 fee. That turns an edge into a loss. Your transparency helps, but a spreadsheet on X cannot replace independent verification, and Stripe explicitly prohibits the service you planned to sell. The good news is that none of this requires abandoning the model. Stop aiming at generic weekly punters. Serve bettors whose stakes make the fee rational, prove that they can capture your quoted odds, and sell through a platform that handles verification and permitted payments. Evidence on those three points changes the verdict.

Medium confidence. The backtest and operating plan are specific, but customer stakes, live odds capture, payment approval, channel permissions and willingness to pay remain untested.

scorecard

Problem6/10
Market5/10
Competition4/10
Business model4/10
Founder fit8/10
Execution risk5/10

Biggest risk

The £19 fee consumes the expected profit of the customer you currently describe.

At 16 bets monthly and 4.8% ROI, the break-even stake is about £24.74 per bet before the customer earns anything for taking risk. Customers staking £5 to £20 are economically unsuitable, while larger bettors demand stronger verification and live execution evidence.

Must be true

A clearly defined segment regularly stakes enough that £19 is no more than roughly one-third of its expected monthly betting profit.
Customers can obtain the published Asian handicap and price before meaningful odds deterioration.
The model remains profitable when tested prospectively with every selection recorded, including pushes, voids and unavailable prices.

What you got right

✓ You reported believable returns
A 4.8% closing-odds return across 1,400 backtested bets is more credible than a spectacular claim with no volume.
✓ You separated two price realities
Reporting +7.1% at Friday prices and +4.8% at closing prices exposes execution risk instead of hiding it.
✓ The operation fits your life
A model producing 3 to 5 weekly selections can fit your 5 to 15 available hours and sub-€1,000 budget.

Next steps

1
Interview and price-test qualified bettors
Success looks like: At least 10 respondents stake £25 or more per selection, and at least five agree to place a refundable deposit or permitted pre-order at one tested price.
2
Run an odds-decay audit
Success looks like: At least 80% of selections remain available within 0.02 decimal-odds equivalent or the same handicap line for 15 minutes at two or more accessible bookmakers.
3
Secure written payment approval
Success looks like: One provider confirms the exact activity in writing and offers workable UK payouts with total platform and payment fees no higher than 20%.